What stands out about the choices we make is that we can usually justify them quite well. Imagine you believe house prices will keep rising: “Prices have gone up significantly for years, there is a housing shortage, so the increase will continue.” Or why we choose German cars: “German cars are simply more reliable, they hold their value better.” It sounds logical, doesn’t it?
The reason these convictions feel so convincing is that we can back them up with arguments. But what if I told you that this process actually works very differently from what we think?
According to Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, the way we make decisions is often far more subjective than we realise. Kahneman shows that our brains make a decision first, and only then search for the arguments to support it.
So rather than carefully weighing up a choice and then finding the right arguments to support it, we actually choose something first — and then come up with the reasons why it was the right choice.
Another fascinating insight from Kahneman is that we often do not even decide for ourselves what we believe. Our convictions are strongly shaped by the social circle around us: family, friends, colleagues and broader society. Think about it: much of what we believe is never explicitly told to us, but emerges from the ideas we encounter in our social interactions. Without noticing, we adapt to the norms of the people around us. We say things like: “Everyone says that brand is good, so it must be.” Or: “House prices will keep rising — everyone says so.”
This process mostly takes place outside our awareness. We feel well-informed, yet this information is often unconsciously coloured by the convictions of others. Kahneman calls this “social coherence.” We tend to think we are deciding for ourselves what to believe, while in reality we are heavily influenced by the people around us.
If you have ever caught yourself justifying a choice with arguments, ask yourself honestly: was that decision truly objective? Or did it stem from something you simply believed — perhaps without even realising it?
That is precisely what Kahneman’s work reveals: we often think we are being objective, but in reality our convictions are frequently subjective and shaped by unconscious processes. Making decisions is, in the end, far more of a social and psychological process than we might care to admit.
What can you do with this knowledge? Here are a few suggestions for looking more critically at your convictions and the decisions you make:
So the next time you believe you have made a well-considered decision, ask yourself: is it truly as objective as you think? Perhaps the people around you and your unconscious convictions have more influence than you would care to admit. But by becoming aware of these influences, you can ground your choices more firmly — and perhaps make genuinely more considered decisions.
As Kahneman puts it: “We think we know.” But do we really?
